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Have you ever watched the tide coming in on a seashore?

You see a wave coming in, then it goes out again, then another comes in, then it goes out again. Each wave's starting point is a bit higher than before, and eventually the whole shore is covered in water.

That's how waves of new members are on Mastodon and the Fediverse. With each new wave, the base level of active members gets a bit higher.

The diagram below (from the-federation.info) shows monthly active members over the past year.

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Phipio

@feditips Or some dipshit billionaire sets a billion dollar social media company on fire and people don't enjoy burning, so they leave the building.

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2y
Just Me Here โ™ฟ๐Ÿณ๏ธโ€๐ŸŒˆ๐Ÿฆฃ๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ“–๐Ÿ–Ž

@feditips

I am housebound these days, but yes I loved the seashore and the tide.

I have been on 4 instances (cannot work out how to set up the book one properly), for Masto I have settled here on masto.ai - I REALLY dig the host - STUX - mega cool if a leetle cat obsessed.

I am just as obsessed over all canids so I am in no position to talk.

If / When I can work others I may join them too - different parts of the Fedi.

I'm here, i'm queer & I aint going anywhere!

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Eckes :mastodon:

@feditips well, the level of active user also can decrease even with new waves. There is a high chance the novelty wears off, when mass adoption does not happen (not saying thatโ€™s good or bad)

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RadiDaddy

@feditips Ooooh, I can see myself on that biiig wave!
In the few weeks Iโ€™ve been here, Iโ€™ve made more contacts and interacted more than I ever did in birdland.

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Simon W ๐Ÿ™„ ๐Ÿ†™ โš›๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

@feditips to be clear the most recent wave started in November, not mid December. But its unclear if we'll get another huge influx - unless all the users from Tumblr and few other soon-to-be-federated-via-activity-pub sites will count?

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Golfhaus still uses โ›ณ๐Ÿ 

@feditips But sure, media, tell me how pEOplE aRe lEaVInG MaSToDoN iN dRoVEs.

This place ain't for everyone, I've learned. If what you really wanted was "Twitter, sand Elon," this isn't really that. But clearly a lot of folks, myself included, learned that wasn't what we really wanted anyway.

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Alan Sill

@feditips Nice! We came online only in late November but here is our graph: the-federation.info/node/detai

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Andyydna

@feditips To look at it a different way, the influx of people from Twitter are expecting to be entertained by Mastodon and tune out easily. New users come in when Twitter does something stupid, but they also lose interest rather quickly. Which doesn't/shouldn't matter to Mastodon per se but could be hard to maintain a critical mass of this type of user.

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Matthew Hall

@feditips funny how a WaPo opinion piece was ๐Ÿ’ฉโ€˜big on Mastodon today. washingtonpost.com/opinions/20

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Ryan

@feditips whatโ€™s considered โ€œactiveโ€? Is it posts?Logins? Something else

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kevin

@feditips personally, i link this gain in overall masto membership DIRECTLY to the #p1 messages in the #greatestgen pod. @greatesttrek@bird.makeup @greatesttrek@twtr.plus

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Dan Kletter

@feditips Curious, has anyone measured how many new users stay active?

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Indie_hacker

@feditips does the fediverse have private chats?

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Chris Rawlins

@feditips

Is it possible to find out how many have joined up but not posted ?

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